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论文标题 |
天然气消费量的灰色模型预测 |
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发表期次 |
2008年第5期 |
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作 者 名 |
王 兵 ,田 丹 ,刘书文 ,罗 山 ,方 炯 ,孙 丽 |
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摘 要 |
王 兵1 ,田 丹2 ,刘书文3 ,罗 山3 ,方 炯4 ,孙 丽4
(1. 中国石油西气东输管道(销售)公司豫皖管理处,安徽滁州 233200; 2. 重庆凯源石油天然气有限责任公司,
重庆 400021; 3. 四川科宏石油天然气工程有限公司,重庆 400021; 4. 西南石油大学研究生院,四川成都 610500)
摘要:介绍了利用灰色理论预测天然气消费量的模型,包括GM (1, 1)模型和动态等维灰数递补灰色预测模型,对模
型进行了求解,介绍了模型精度的检验方法,并用实例加以验证,同时与实际消费量进行了对比。计算结果表明:此方法
预测天然气消费量既简单又准确,有较好的适应性和较高的精度,对天然气输配管网的优化运行和统一调度管理具有重
要的参考意义。
关键词:灰色模型;预测;天然气消费量;灰色理论;模型检验
中图分类号: TE01 文献标识码:A 文章编号: 1004 - 9614 (2008) 05 - 0003 - 03
Applica tion of GreyModel to Pred ict Na tura l Ga s Con sumption
WANG Bing1 , TIAN Dan2 ,L IU Shu2wen3 ,LUO Shan3 , FANG J iong4 , SUN L i4
( 1. Yu2wan Managemen tD iv ision,West2Ea st Ga s Pipeline Corpora tion of Petroch ina, Chuzhou 233200, Ch ina;
2. Chongq ing Ka iyuan Petroleum & Na tura l Ga s Co. , L td. , Chongq ing 400021, Ch ina;
3. S ichuan Kehong O il & Ga s Eng ineer ing Co. , L td. , Chongq ing 400021, Ch ina;
4. Gradua te School, Southwest Petroleum Un iversity, Chengdu 610500, Ch ina)
Abstract: It introduces the model of grey theory to p redict natural gas consump tion, including GM (1, 1) and the dynamic e2
qual2dimensional grey2number p rogressive comp lement grey p redictionmodel. It also introduces themethod for verifying the accura2
cy of the model, gives an examp le to validate the model and contrasts the actual consump tion meanwhile. The result indicates that
the method p redicting natural gas consump tion is simp le and accurate, that the model has good adap tability and accuracy, and that
the method is important to op timize the operation and united dispatch management of the transmission and distribution pepeline net2
work.
Key words: greymodel; p redict; natural gas consump tion; grey theory;model verification | | |
